Consequences of the course of confrontation
As long as the confrontation between the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other continues, there will be an unrestrained arms race, especially in important fields of technology such as AI and cyberspace, because no nation can risk losing out. This will affect the development of autonomous weapons systems, but also cyberweapons and perhaps even bio- and chemical weapons developed with the help of AI. What is now being developed in AI will always remain, because software cannot simply be disarmed, proliferation can hardly be controlled or prevented.
Even a race for a superintelligence is conceivable. China and other countries are also working on technologies for superintelligence and it is to be expected that efforts will also be further increased there.
If the current confrontational course between West and East is not ended quickly, the risks mentioned on these pages will quickly and seriously intensify.
One consequence of climate change will be that the living space in many regions will shrink and this will lead to more international crises and conflicts. This will also increase some of the risks mentioned above.
Required agreements
In order to reduce the serious risks, the following would be important:
- Effective agreements against climate change
- Nuclear disarmament and arms control
- Agreements on cyber weapons
- Agreements on autonomous weapons systems
- Agreements on the regulation of AI
However, agreements in these areas can only be effective if all major nations are involved and participate. As a prerequisite for this, it would be particularly important to end the current course of political confrontation as quickly as possible.